Nexo Token could hit $38 by 2025 according to this modeled forecast

Nexo Dividend & Token Forecast Comments welcomed. Make a copy of it if you want to edit the numbers and build your own model. I only modeled income from loans. Other streams of income (like the exchange and full banking services) would increase this projection. If you can help improve model please message author @ryanallis on Telegram or Twitter. Inputs Growth Current Nexo Token Price $2.02 *Model last updated February 19, 2021 Total tokens 1,000,000,000 2022-2023 Lending Volume Growth 100% Current Cost of 100k Tokens $202,000 Issued tokens 560,000,011 2024-2025 Lending Volume Growth 50% Dividend Eligble Tokens 60% 2026-2030 Lending Volume Growth 30% Nexo Token Dividend Share 30% 2031-2035 Lending Volume Growth 15% Based on this fundamentals-driven analysis, I suggest acquisition up to a $3 price point and a 10-15 year hold period for maximum long term returns. Please DYOR. FY2021 Lending Volume Growth 2147% Actuals Forecast Year FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Dividend Timeframe May-Nov 2018 Dec 18-Jun 19 Jul 19-Jun 20 Jul 20 - Jun 21 Jul 21 - Jun 22 Jul 22 - Jun 23 Jul 23 - Jun 24 Jul 24 - Jun 25 Jul 25 - Jun 26 Jul 26 - Jun 27 Jul 27 - Jun 28 Jul 28 - Jun 29 Jul 29 - Jun 30 Jul 30 - Jun 31 Jul 31 - Jun 32 Jul 32 - Jun 33 Jul 33 - Jun 34 Jul 34 - Jun 35 Dividend Issuance 12/15/2018 8/15/2019 8/15/2020 8/15/2021 8/15/2022 8/15/2023 8/15/2024 8/15/2025 8/15/2026 8/15/2027 8/15/2028 8/15/2029 8/15/2030 8/15/2031 8/15/2032 8/15/2033 8/15/2034 8/15/2035 Lending Volume During Period $17,494,424 $49,728,535 $289,619,861 $6,216,936,021 $12,433,872,043 $24,867,744,086 $37,301,616,128 $55,952,424,193 $72,738,151,450 $94,559,596,885 $122,927,475,951 $159,805,718,736 $207,747,434,357 $238,909,549,511 $274,745,981,937 $315,957,879,228 $363,351,561,112 $417,854,295,279 Daily Loan Volume Average $83,307 $236,803 $793,479 $17,032,701 $34,065,403 $68,130,806 $102,196,209 $153,294,313 $199,282,607 $259,067,389 $336,787,605 $437,823,887 $569,171,053 $654,546,711 $752,728,718 $865,638,025 $995,483,729 $1,144,806,288 Loan Profit % 17.38% 16.15% 7.05% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% Expected Firm Profits $3,040,237 $8,031,916 $20,426,605 $155,423,401 $310,846,801 $621,693,602 $932,540,403 $1,398,810,605 $1,818,453,786 $2,363,989,922 $3,073,186,899 $3,995,142,968 $5,193,685,859 $5,972,738,738 $6,868,649,548 $7,898,946,981 $9,083,789,028 $10,446,357,382 Expected Dividends (30%) $912,071 $2,409,575 $6,127,981 $46,627,020 $93,254,040 $186,508,081 $279,762,121 $419,643,181 $545,536,136 $709,196,977 $921,956,070 $1,198,542,891 $1,558,105,758 $1,791,821,621 $2,060,594,865 $2,369,684,094 $2,725,136,708 $3,133,907,215 Dividends Per Eligible Token $0.003 $0.007 $0.018 $0.139 $0.278 $0.555 $0.833 $1.249 $1.624 $2.111 $2.744 $3.567 $4.637 $5.333 $6.133 $7.053 $8.111 $9.327 Dividends Per 10k Tokens $27 $72 $182 $1,388 $2,775 $5,551 $8,326 $12,489 $16,236 $21,107 $27,439 $35,671 $46,372 $53,328 $61,327 $70,526 $81,105 $93,271 Expected Token Price $0.06 $0.07 $0.15 $4.16 $8.33 $16.65 $24.98 $37.47 $48.71 $63.32 $68.60 $89.18 $115.93 $133.32 $153.32 $176.32 $162.21 $186.54 Expected Market Cap $35,280,001 $40,320,001 $86,240,002 $2,331,351,008 $4,662,702,016 $9,325,404,032 $13,988,106,048 $20,982,159,072 $27,276,806,794 $35,459,848,832 $38,414,836,235 $49,939,287,105 $64,921,073,237 $74,659,234,222 $85,858,119,355 $98,736,837,259 $90,837,890,278 $104,463,573,820 Price to Dividend (PD Ratio) 23.21 10.04 8.44 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 25 25 25 25 25 25 20 20 Forecast Takeaways By 2035, one Nexo token will be worth around $186.54 plus generate annual dividends of $9.327 So, if you owned 100,000 tokens in 2035 they'd be worth $18,654,209 plus you'd earn annual dividends of $932,710 Notes and factors we considered The Nexo team owns 11.25% of the token supply, so they will be incented to continue to maintain favorable economics for the tokens Nexo pays 6-10% annual interest on deposits, compared to 0.02% at regular banks, so it is highly likely the amount of capital individuals and institions deposit with Nexo will increase dramatically the next 10-15 years Nexo updated their token economics to make them more favorable to token holders in October 2020, therefore I have applied a 30x Price to Dividend (PD) ratio as a "fair PD ratio" going forward, above the historial average of 14. This is equal to the current PE ratio an average stock trades at in the USA. Usually fast growth stocks are higher. Nexo also does token buybacks, which reduces the available supply. I haven't worked that into the model yet, but it will be favorable. Nexo is in the process of launching their credit card as well as acquiring a US-based bank and a European-based bank, substantially increasing their available services. Model sanity check: Bank of America has $17B in annual net profits, so it is reasonable that Nexo could have $10B in annual profits by 2035. Also BOA does $906 billion in annual loans, so it's reasonable Nexo can reach $450B. BoA has a market cap of $280B so it's very reasonable that Nexo could reach $100B, which would be about the market cap Coinbase is expected to reach after its 2021 IPO. Nexo plans to eventually have an IPO -- they have major growth plans to reinvent banking Competitors include Celsius, BlockFi, Crypto.com, Gemini, Swipe, Revolut, PlasmaPay, and to a lesser extent, Coinbase (which doesn't offer returns on BTC/ETH yet) Primary competitor BlockFi has rasied $158M so far and plans a 2021 IPO via a SPAC The NEXO Token is the world’s first US SEC-compliant dividend-paying asset-backed security token with additional utility features, that will be offered as a security to qualified investors in accordance with US andother laws. Factors that may make the forecast too conservative I'm assuming 100% growth for the next two years, decreasing thereafter. Actual growth may be much higher as we've seen an 1800%+ growth in loan volume the last year. I assumed a 2.5% loan profit % going forward, well below the FY2020 actual of 7.05%. This estimate may be overly conservative. Bank of America's net loan profit % in 2019 was 2.44% for comparison. This model only assumes profits from loans. If Nexo goes into other lines of business, which it plans on, the figures may be higher. If/when Nexo acquires a banking license its cost of capital will likely decrease, likely increasing loan profit % Factors that may make the forecast too aggressive I'm unsure if or when the other 440,000,000 off-market tokens will become eligible for dividends. If all 1B tokens become eligible, it would reduce the result of this analysis by ~44%. Sources: From: https://nexologist.com/loans From: https://nexostatistics.com/loans/